Analysis: Mutiny lays bare prospect for Putin of 'forever war' in Ukraine

KYIV (Reuters) - An abortive mutiny in Russia has shown the risks the Kremlin faces from a long, grinding conflict in Ukraine even though it has not handed Kyiv an immediate breakthrough on the battlefield.

Many questions still swirl after Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner forces returned to base after Friday's mutiny, which was called off the following day under a deal brokered by the president of Belarus.

But current and former officials in Kyiv say the mutiny offered a startling glimpse into the strain the Russian political system is under. It revealed that Russian reserve forces were so thin they struggled to respond to the threat.

"I think clearly they're not in a safe space regarding the endless continuation of the war," Andriy Zagorodniuk, Ukraine's defence minister from 2019 to 2020, told Reuters.

"Remember the concept of the 'forever war' that was in the press? I think they will have to rethink that."

A war stretching many more months and possibly years would inevitably mean more deaths and wounded on each side.

Since Putin sent his forces into Ukraine in February 2022 in what he called a "special military operation" Western officials put the death toll in the tens of thousands.

The apparent ease with which Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary forces barrelled hundreds of kilometres towards Moscow from Russia's south facing little resistance was striking, Zagorodniuk said.

"They started to pool resources in order to stop them. We saw those resources and they weren't substantial...Essentially, they don't have much force left apart from what they have at the front right now," he said.

U.S. officials, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said much remained unclear, including why Russian forces did not do more to halt Wagner's advance.

The Kremlin, a day after accusing Prigozhin of leading the mutiny, said he would be allowed to move to Belarus without facing charges in return for calling off his forces from hurtling towards Moscow.