Australia on brink as Sri Lanka eye Super Eights spot

PALLEKELE (Web Desk) - Australia have no room for error now. Mathematically they won't be eliminated with a defeat against Sri Lanka, but it would leave them needing something close to a miracle. For Sri Lanka, the stakes aren't quite as high, but with a confident Zimbabwe as their last opposition in the group stage they would ideally not want to leave their fate uncertain. A win would lock them into the Super Eights.

T20 World Cups hold an odd position in Australia men's cricket. Poor ones, of which there have been a few over the years, don't really lead to calls for wholesale changes that defeats in marquee Tests can do or underperforming ODI World Cup campaigns (as rare as they are). But it's fair to say, more people are now engaged with Australia's fortunes following the loss to Zimbabwe. A group stage exit would be a significant failure.

The initial fallout to that loss has raised questions about both the batting and bowling. Only taking two wickets has shone a light on a lack of strike power, particularly when Adam Zampa is kept quiet, but in truth Australia should still have been able to chase 170 given their whole T20 philosophy over the last 18 months has been the depth and power of the order. With form questions over a few players coming in, and lack of cricket for others, the injury to Mitchell Marsh was especially untimely.

Sri Lanka had enough to get past Ireland (aided by the latter's fielding) and were comfortably too strong for Oman. That contest was a nice ego boost for the batting with Kusal Mendis, Pavan Rathnayake and the under-pressure captain Dasun Shanka flaying half-centuries. In their opening game, Kamindu Mendis had produced an eye-catching display. They certainly have the tools to cause Australia's undermanned attack problems.

These two sides have not played each other in a T20I since the 2022 World Cup when Marcus Stoinis hunted down the target with an 18-ball 59. And while no one is really an unknown in international cricket these days given the franchise game and accessibility of footage, it is worth noting Australia have never faced Matheesha Pathirana, this generation's slinger, although in all T20s only Marsh from a potential top order has been dismissed by him. Glenn Maxwell has 26 runs off ten balls against him, Tim David 21 off 12.

Left-arm spin-bowling allrounder Dunith Wellalage has yet to play a T20I against Australia, but in ODIs he has had quite the time of it with 16 wickets at 20.12 from eight matches which included making his debut as a 19-year-old in 2022. Eleven of those wickets have come at the Premadasa, in five matches, compared to four in two games at Pallekele, but Australia have not always combated left-arm spin well. He has started the tournament with tidy figures of 1 for 28 and 1 for 17. He shapes as even more important given the tournament-ending injury to Wanindu Hasaranga and the uncertain form of Dushan Hemantha who went for 45 against Oman.

Tim David's elevation up the order was a key part of Australia's planning for this tournament during 2025 when their T20 game clicked nicely. But the hamstring injury he picked up on Boxing Day for Hobart Hurricanes put a spanner in works because it has left David short of match time. He wasn't ready for the series in Pakistan and was left out against Ireland. Facing Zimbabwe, he picked out short fine leg second ball as part of the powerplay collapse. If Australia are to go deep in this tournament, David will need to fire.

Sri Lanka have a couple of issues to ponder. One is whether they stick with Hemantha or bring in an extra seamer, Pramod Madushan. Another option would be to alter the balance of the side and include Charith Asalanka as a spin-bowling allrounder. Kamil Mishara's spot could be under pressure after a couple of low scores with Kusal Perera an alternative.

The word from the Australia camp is that Marsh has improved and could come into contention but he will have to get through training on Sunday. Stoinis has avoided serious injury after the blow to the hand while bowling against Zimbabwe. Steven Smith is now with the squad but has not been officially added, although there is still time before facing Sri Lanka. If Marsh is fit, a big call will need to be made on who misses out given Matt Renshaw has impressed. It could come down to between Glenn Maxwell and Cameron Green unless the selectors opt for just three specialist bowlers.

Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Pathum Nissanka, 2 Kamil Mishara, 3 Kusal Mendis (wk), 4 Pavan Rathnayake, 5 Dasun Shanaka (capt), 6 Kamindu Mendis, 7 Dunith Wellalage, 8 Dushan Hemantha/Charith Asalanka, 9 Dushmantha Chameera, 10 Maheesh Theekshana, 11 Matheesha Pathirana

Australia (possible): 1 Mitchell Marsh (capt), 2 Travis Head, 3 Josh Inglis (wk), 4 Tim David, 5 Matt Renshaw, 6 Marcus Stoinis, 7 Glenn Maxwell, 8 Xavier Bartlett, 9 Nathan Ellis, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Matt Kuhnemann