Summary The projected reading would mark the highest monthly inflation in around 21 months, up from 7.3 percent in March, reflecting renewed price pressures after a period of relative easing.
ISLAMABAD (Web Desk) - Pakistan’s inflation is expected to accelerate sharply to between 11 percent and 11.5 percent year-on-year in April, driven by a surge in fuel prices amid Middle East tensions, a brokerage report said on Monday.
The projected reading would mark the highest monthly inflation in around 21 months, up from 7.3 percent in March, reflecting renewed price pressures after a period of relative easing.
Fuel prices have risen significantly, with petrol up nearly 18 percent and high-speed diesel surging more than 50 percent in April, amplifying cost pressures across the economy. The spike comes amid escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel, which have disrupted global energy markets and pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, feeding into domestic inflation.
“On a MoM basis, inflation for Apr 2026 is projected at +2.65 percent, primarily driven by a 22.5 percent MoM increase in the transport segment, following a sharp surge in international oil prices,” Topline Securities said in a report.
Housing and utilities are also expected to contribute to inflation, with liquefied petroleum gas prices rising sharply and electricity tariffs edging higher due to fuel and quarterly adjustments.
Food inflation, however, is likely to provide partial relief, with falling wheat and fresh fruit prices offsetting increases in vegetables and poultry.
Despite the food price moderation, analysts warned that rising fuel and energy costs could reverse the disinflation trend seen in recent months and weigh on household purchasing power.
The report also noted that real interest rates could turn negative again after more than two years if inflation accelerates as projected, potentially complicating monetary policy decisions.
Pakistan’s CPI inflation quickened to 7.3 percent year-on-year in March, compared to a 7 percent on-year rise in February, data from the statistics bureau showed on April 1.
