Summary Ex-US special envoy Ryan Crocker says current year is proper time for change in Pakistan.
Ryan Crocker, former US ambassador to Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, while speaking about Pakistani elections at a think-tank Council n Foreign Relations , said that nothing can be predicted prior to elections.
He said that different characters will be incharge in Islamabad by the end of 2013; however, difficult to predict winners, but PML-N is being tipped to do well.
He guessed that the PPP is likely to lose at least 40 seats in parliament while some new parties including PTI may fare well, but will not have capacity to form government.
“We can have dangerous possibilities and disruption in relationship with Islamabad” said US envoy.
He made it clear that delay of election and military intervention will be unpopular in the public.
While throwing light on law and order situation in the country, he said Taliban are gaining strength in Karachi, stable Pakistan is crucial to stable region.
He said Pakistan is in a state of institutional failure, not a failed state yet but a failing state.
“These elections are crucial and have to be credible, international community has to focus on helping. We are not interested in who should be elected but only the process should be legitimate”, said Crocker.
He said the military will keep a distance as long as there is no widespread unrest.
He added Musharraf will be in and out of court throughout campaign. He may win a couple of seats but remains to be seen how electoral alliances work. So far as the post election situation is concerned, Nawaz Sharif would seek revenge if he is elected.
He said Pakistani military and ISI is a very important player is the reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan.
“Pakistanis will never forget the aftermath of soviet withdrawal. It went from most trusted ally to most sanctioned country. Is the US a reliable ally? This is the same question what we ask of Pakistan”, concluded US envoy.
